CO2 by the numbers

THE KEELING CURVE
Can you see where renewables kicked in? No?

Mona Loa Research Station
=
CO2 concentrations do go down. It is not always up.

=
Tons of CO2 in the atmosphere
The atmosphere "weighs" [5.2 x 1000**5] metric tons
(5.2 quadrillion metric tons)
CO2 is 410 ppm or .410/1000 molecules by count
converting count to weight: (.410/1000) x (44/28.8) = .627/1000
explanation of 44/28 factor. CO2(44) is heavier than N2(28)
[5.2 x 1000**5] x [.627 x 1000**-1] = [3.26 x 1000**4]
410 ppm CO2 = 3.26 trillion metric tons

1 ppm of CO2 is about 8 billion metric tons
6 ppm of CO2 is about 48 billion metric tons
40 billion metric tons is 5 ppm (2019 emissions)
250 ppm of CO2 is about 2.0 trillion metric tons (pre-industrial)

Conversion from tons of Carbon to tons of CO2: (44/12) or 3.66
Conversion from tons of CO2 to tons of Carbon: (12/44) or 0.27

See James Lovelock. He is clearly unaware that man has emitted 2 trillion metric tons in the last 250 years, a blink geologically.
A billion metric tons he calls a gigaton
A trillion metric tons he calls a teraton.
=
CO2 world emissions since 1750: 2,120 billion metric tons

Not all of that ended up in the atmosphere.
It looks like 1.3 trillion metric tons, about 60%, did.
calculation: 1.3 trillion metric tons = 3.3 (410ppm) - 2.0 (250ppm)
I think the claim that CO2 never comes out of the air is too strong a claim.
Could we get the split between fossil CO2 and biologic CO2? Maybe nuclear testing in the air has made that impossible, with the creation of unnatural amounts of C14.
=
Is this true? Or false.

How long CO2 stays in the atmosphere is a crucial issue. The flip side is how fast does it clear?

H2O by the numbers

a Flood requires over 100 trillion metric.tons of water
1. [360 x 1000**2] sq.km is the size of Earth's ocean surface
360 million square kilometers
2. [.3 x 1000**-1] km is one foot in kilometers
3. [360 x 1000**2] sq.km x [.3 x 1000**-1] km
is the volume of a one foot rise in sea level
or [108 x 1000**1] cu.km, 108 thousand cubic kilometers, a Flood

4. [1 x 1000**1] kg
is the weight of a cubic meter of water, a metric ton
5. [1 x 1000**3] kg
is the weight of a cubic kilometer of water, a billion metric tons

6. [108 x 1000**1] cu.km x [1 x 1000**3] kg/cu.km
is the weight of a one foot rise in sea level
or [108 x 1000**4] kg, or 100 trillion metric.tons

So a Flood is a melt, from 100 trillion metric.tons up to a quad

Article in USA TODAY, April 2019 here
says "Since 1961, the world has lost 10.6 trillion tons of ice and snow, the study reported." Ten trillion tons in 60 years means, if melt continues at that rate (it may increase) that a Flood will happen gradually in ten times that, or 600 years.

The Thwaits glacier in antarctica is currently the hot glacier, but note that the 50 billion metric tons mentioned as the loss in that year is well below the 100 trillion metric tons mark for Flood. The loss this year is reported as 250 billion metric tons, or 2.5 trillion metric tons in 10 years, or 25 trillion in 100 years, or Flood level in 400 years.
But remember that Thwaits is not the only source of melt. Pine Island is a similar glacier, also melting into the Amundsen Sea. Alpine glaciers melt as much. A warmer ocean expands 5% by volume. and there is Greenland.

7. Glacier Retreat
The glacier used to be able to push away the ocean. No longer. There is quite a bit of glacier that rests on land, but the land is below the current sea level. This will soon be "ice shelves", and then "icebergs", as the warmer water erodes the bottom level of ice.

8.Advice from Hugh, Cambridge College Lecture Series


9. Why higher global average surface temperature can be so bad

Extinction Rebellion

Whatever you do, don't do nothing.

Statements against doing anything.

Q1. The globe is not warming
A: Does ice melt at 32F?
Alpine glaciers have left locations that are now above 32F.

Q2. There is so little CO2. It couldn't be that.
A: Does CO2 block infrared?
What is the history of infrared radiation measurements from space?

Q3: Saturation, adding more does not matter.
A: What is the history of infrared radiation measurements from space?
Do those measurements show that it does not matter? MORE

Q4. 1934 was so warm
Warm in the USA. MORE

Q5. The climate is always changing
The last half of the holocene has been quite stable, hasn't it?
Or, do you mean the weather is always changing?

Q6. It's not mankind
Where did we lose you?
CO2 is going up. We are doing that. Correct??
CO2 prevents Earth from cooling off by blocking infrared. Correct?
If additional CO2 means that Earth cannot become cooler by infrared radiation, then the atmosphere is hotter. The next day, the Earth gets hotter again, until the atmosphere reaches a temperature, where, because of its higher temperature, it is able to radiate away as much more heat as the heat blocked by the additional CO2.
That temperature becomes the new average global temperature. Correct?

Q7. 97% of scientists agree that the climate changes. So what?
No. By 2001 the IPCC managed to establish a consensus, phrased so cautiously that none of the government representatives ventured to dissent. It was much more likely than not, the panel announced, that our civilization was headed for severe global warming. MORE

Q8. Climate change is good.
By 2010 impacts long predicted were turning up, sooner than many had expected — acidification of the oceans, unprecedented deadly heat waves, record-breaking floods and droughts, heat-related changes in the survival of sensitive species. MORE

Q9. CO2 is plant food.
It is plant food that is causing climate change.

Q10. The models are rigged.
Retreating alpine glaciers is not a model. It's opening your eyes.

Q11. I don't believe it.
But I do believe that the alpine glaciers are melting.
?And the Northwest Passage acoss the Bering Sea?
?And the Great Barrier Reef bleaching?
?And the flooding of streets in Miami Beach?
?And the wildfires in California? Earlier snowmelt has led to hot, dry conditions.

Questions, good ones

1. How long does CO2 stay in the atmosphere
It makes a big difference. If it stays 100 years, then each year 1% of the 400ppm drops out, or 4ppm. If 25 years, that's 16 ppm. 400, 1ppm.
Mona Loa data shows CO2 concentration going up and down seasonally. Surely, in natural seasonal variation, down must be greater than up, since some carbon is "sequestered" in the tree rings.

2. How much of emitted CO2 goes into the Ocean?
If it goes in the ocean, it does not go into the atmosphere.

3. How much heat goes into the Ocean?
How long does it take for the ocean to get hot enough to reject all attempts to stash heat in the ocean? I suppose when the ocean reaches atmospheric temperature. But the ocean can't change temperatures as fast as the atmosphere can. The atmosphere can drop 20 degrees in the blink of an eye, as you know.
El nino, which is a larger than usual hot patch in the pacific, blocks heat from going into the ocean. If the air can't cool down, it stays hotter. The standard problem.

4. How much energy will the world need in 2030?
How many 1G nuclear plants would we need to build each year? Many.

5. Solar radiation to land seems so different from solar radiation to ocean.
Different level of re-radiation from ocean, as ocean is cooler than land. Delayed reaction.

6. They say, here, "Without this natural greenhouse effect (but assuming the same albedo, or reflectivity, as today), the average surface temperature of the Earth would be about 60°F colder."
This means, doesn't it, that 300 ppm has a 60°F temperature effect.

7. Simplest solution is to consume less. A good discussion here: [1]

Malenkovitch cycles

Here is a geologist talking about climate science. He explains how the Milankovitch cycles caused the ice ages. One lesson is how delicately balanced the climate system is, and is affected by what seems like a small change.

The point that is quite surprising is that Earth presents essentially the same size disk to the sun all the time, and the only thing that changes from the viewpoint of the sun, is the location of the pole in that disk. This changes the mix of land and sea presented to the sun, and this small cyclic variation over millennia, is enough (apparently) to cause ice sheets to advance or to retreat, assuming that the CO2 level is low enough to allow Earth to cool, so that average global temperature falls below 32F for "long enough" periods, in enough places.

The latest version of the ROCLA video

Version 4 - is the latest revision 11/15/2018
Version 3